Love in the Time of Covid: Lockdown in the Aylesbury housing market
Surreal doesn’t do it justice. Are we really locked down in our own homes while an invisible killer preys on the elderly and infirm? Our heartfelt feelings go out to everyone feeling worried or anxious for themselves or their family at this unprecedented time. Likewise we share in the frustration many of us must feel about this sudden interruption into daily life.
We’re not operating under the illusion that anyone is thinking too hard about moving home or the property market right now - so fear not. You may, however, be interested to hear what we think the short, medium and long term effects of the virus might be. We’re going to assume that cases of the virus will peak and within a handful of months, things will start to go back to normal.
During the lockdown, which has just begun as we write this, we expect the national housing market to pretty much freeze. Estate agencies rely on a chain of activity including viewings, surveys and non-householders mixing, which seems infeasible during this time. So we’re not expecting you to see very much new stock on the portals.
When, eventually, normality resumes, we expect to see a tidal wave of new stock coming onto the market. Not only will a swell of springtime movers belatedly arrive in the market, but more will come to take advantage of the historically low interest rates, if they persist. One thing we don’t want to see is a market buoyed by the couples in the chart above getting divorced after too much enforced family time!
A quarterly index of sales levels
This chart shows how sales levels in the local area sit now compared with two years ago. The analysis indexes all types of property so they start at the same point (100) so you can easily see how they've moved in relation to each other. The chart shows the quarter-on-quarter fluctuations typical of super-local analysis.
Monthly prices by property type
The data for our area over the last eight months reveals interesting fluctuations across property types. The last 3 months are outlines. This is because the data is still coming in so we've estimated what we think they will be when all the data is available.
Industry of occupation
The profile of jobs is an important yardstick for the makeup of people in a housing market. In this analysis we've used data from the Office for National Statistics on the number of people in the local area who work in each industry. The categories are a bit vague but if you look at the longest bars, you can see a pretty good profile of our area.